Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 7, 2015
Consumer credit outstanding increased $20.5 billion (6.9% y/y) during March
following a $14.8 billion February rise, initially reported as $15.5 billion.
The gain was the strongest since July. Expectations were for a $16.0 billion
increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten
years, there has been a 49% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer
credit and the y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.
Non-revolving credit usage ramped up $16.2 billion (8.2% y/y) after a $17.2 billion rise. Federal government loans increased 14.3% y/y. These constitute just over one-third of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (25% of the total) improved 2.1% y/y. Bank borrowing (25% of the total) rose 5.6% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 15.8% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (2% of the total) declined 10.7% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) remained unchanged y/y.
Revolving consumer credit increased $4.4 billion (3.3% y/y) following declines during the prior two months. Commercial bank & savings institution lending (82% of the total) increased 4.8% y/y. Finance company balances (7% of the total) declined 9.2% y/y while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 7.5% y/y. Nonfinancial business balances (3% of the total) were off 5.5% y/y and securitized credit card balances (4% of the total) gained 0.9% y/y.
Student loans increased 7.4% y/y to $1.355 trillion during the first quarter while borrowing to buy motor vehicles advanced 9.0% y/y to $972 billion.
These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $20.5 bil. | $14.8 bil. | $9.9 bil. | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
Revolving | 4.4 | -2.4 | -2.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
Nonrevolving | 16.2 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.5 |