Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2015
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond reported that its April Composite Index of Manufacturing Sector activity remained negative at -3 following weak readings of -8 and 0 during the prior two months. Expectations were for -2 in the Bloomberg Survey. The reading for shipments and new orders both were negative for the third straight month. Orders backlogs declined for the sixth straight period though employment increased. The breadth of job increase this year remained subdued, however, versus the readings during the last half of 2014. The length of the average workweek similarly gained this month but the improvement was moderate versus most of last year. The same was true for wages. Pricing power also remained subdued.
Service sector performance also is gauged by the Richmond Fed. The revenue measure plunged m/m to the weakest reading in twelve months. The expected employment index improved m/m but remained, this year, well below the readings for during the second half of 2014. The expected prices paid series also improved modestly in April but remained below the levels of last year's second half.
The Richmond Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Survey | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Factory Sector Diffusion Index (% Increasing) | -3 | -8 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
Shipments | -6 | -13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
New Orders Volume | -6 | -13 | -2 | 10 | 7 | -0 | 0 |
Number of Employees | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
Prices Paid (%) | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 1.18 | 1.55 | 1.58 | 1.92 |
Service Sector (% Increasing) | |||||||
Revenues | 2 | 12 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
Number of Employees | 9 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 2 |
Prices (%) | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 |