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Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
Italian Confidence Makes Small Bounce in May; Is It a Signal or Is It Noise?
Italian business and consumer confidence indexes both are substantially lower in May...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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by Tom Moeller April 24, 2015
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.0% during March (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 1.4% February decline. Leading the increase were orders for defense aircraft which roughly doubled m/m (26.5% y/y). Nondefense aircraft orders also were strong, posting a 30.6% gain (-3.2% y/y). Total durable goods orders were expected to rise 0.8% in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the y/y change in orders and the change in real GDP.
Outside of the transportation sector, new orders slipped 0.2% (-1.9% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly shortfall which totals 5.5%. Machinery orders declined 1.5% (-11.6% y/y), down 12.8% since a June peak. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances fell 1.1% (-1.7% y/y) and were 7.6% below June's high. Orders for both fabricated & primary metals fell modestly m/m and have been trending lower. Offsetting these declines was a 3.0% increase in orders for computers & electronic products though they were unchanged y/y. Orders for motor vehicles & parts have been notably strong. They jumped 5.4% last month (10.0% y/y) to an all-time high.
Nondefense capital goods orders recovered 3.5% (-3.4% y/y) following a 2.2% decline. Orders excluding the notably volatile aircraft sector, however, slipped 0.5% (-4.0% y/y) and were 6.7% below the August peak.
Shipments of durable goods improved 1.1% (3.7% y/y) following a 0.2% slip. Shipments excluding transportation edged 0.3% higher (0.5% y/y) after a 0.5% drop. Unfilled orders were unchanged (+8.0% y/y) following declines in the three prior months. Backlogs less the transportation sector fell 0.5% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Inventories of durable goods ticked 0.1% higher (5.1% y/y), the weakest of the last three monthly gains, and excluding transportation they also rose 0.1% (4.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders (SA, %) | 4.0 | -1.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
Transportation | 13.5 | -1.8 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 8.9 |
Total Excluding Transportation | -0.2 | -1.3 | -0.9 | -1.9 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.5 | -2.2 | 8.5 | -3.4 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.5 | -2.2 | -0.3 | -4.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.1 |
Shipments | 1.1 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 |