The Chicago Federal Reserve reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) during March fell to -0.42 from -0.18, revised from -0.11. It was the weakest reading since January of last year. The three-month moving average remained negative. The reading of -0.27 was the lowest indication since October 2012. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Three of the four component series were negative last month. The Production & Income series fell to -0.27, roughly equaling its lowest level since January of last year. The Employment, Unemployment and Hours figure turned negative for the first time since April 2013. The Personal Consumption & Housing series remained negative at -0.13, though that was improved following last February's collapse to -0.22. At 0.01, the Sales, Orders and Inventories series remained weak. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI deteriorated sharply to -0.27, the weakest indication since October 2012. The Fed reported that 38 of the 85 component series made positive contributions to the total while 47 made negative contributions.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.