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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2015
It's been a harsh winter in some regions of the country. Housing starts during February declined 17.0% to 897,000 units (-3.3% y/y) from 1.081 million in January, revised from 1.065 million. The decline disappointed expectations for 1.045 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Single-family starts fell 15.2% m/m to 592,000 (+0.5% y/y) versus 698,000 in January. The decline was accompanied by a 20.8% drop in multi-family starts to 304,000 (-10.3% y/y) versus 384,000 in January.
Record snowfall dropped housing starts in the Northeast by 56.5% to 47,000 units (-46.0% y/y), the lowest level since early-2009. Heavy snows in the Midwest also lowered starts 37.0% to 97,000 (-20.5% y/y). In the West, starts declined 18.2% (+10.1 y/y). Starts in the Southern region suffered a lesser impact and fell 2.5% (+2.4% y/y).
Building permits improved 3.0% last month to 1.092 million (7.7% y/y) from 1.060 million. Single-family permits declined 6.2% to 620,000 (+2.8% y/y) but multi-family permits rose 18.3% to 472,000 (14.8% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 897 | 1,081 | 1,081 | -3.3 | 1,001 | 930 | 784 |
Single-Family | 592 | 698 | 725 | 0.5 | 646 | 621 | 537 |
Multi-Family | 304 | 384 | 356 | -10.3 | 355 | 309 | 247 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 47 | 108 | 113 | -46.0 | 110 | 97 | 80 |
Midwest | 97 | 154 | 170 | -20.5 | 160 | 149 | 129 |
South | 514 | 527 | 499 | 2.4 | 496 | 467 | 400 |
West | 239 | 292 | 299 | 10.1 | 236 | 217 | 175 |
Building Permits | 1,092 | 1,060 | 1,060 | 7.7 | 1,033 | 990 | 829 |