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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller March 13, 2015
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index fell 0.5% during February (-0.6% y/y) following an unrevised 0.8% January decline. A 0.2% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy also were off 0.5% (+1.0% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. A 0.1% rise was expected.
Final demand goods prices (34% of the total index) fell 0.4% (-4.2% y/y), led lower by a 1.6% decline (+0.4% y/y) in food prices. Beef & veal prices decreased 3.2% (+19.1% y/y) but dairy product prices declined 3.0% (-12.8% y/y). Egg prices rose 12.6% (10.4% y/y). Energy prices remained unchanged (-22.4% y/y). Gasoline prices improved 1.5% (-42.7% y/y) and home heating oil prices recovered 9.9% (-39.6% y/y). Electric power costs slipped 0.1% (4.6% y/y) while natural gas prices fell 2.1% (-9.2% y/y). Final demand prices for goods excluding food & energy backpedaled 0.1% (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Passenger car prices fell 0.8% (+0.2% y/y) while furniture prices improved 0.4% (2.0% y/y). Light motor truck prices gained 0.5% (0.3% y/y). Private capital equipment prices improved 0.1% (1.0% y/y) for a second straight month.
Services prices (64% of the total index) were off 0.5% (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. Final demand trade services prices fell 1.5% (+2.2% y/y) and retraced two months of 0.5% increase. Prices for transportation of passengers declined 2.7% (+0.3% y/y). Prices for transportation and warehousing of goods fell 1.1% (-0.8% y/y).
Inching up by 0.1% (2.0% y/y) were construction prices for final demand (2% of the total index) after a 0.4% rise.
Intermediate demand prices of processed goods were off 0.6% (-6.4% y/y), the seventh straight monthly decline.
Measured using the old formula, which is being phased out as the headline series, producer prices slipped 0.1% (-3.5% y/y). Consumer food costs moved 1.4% lower (+1.8% y/y), down for the fourth straight month but energy prices rebounded 0.6% (-19.9% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy ticked 0.1% higher (1.5% y/y). Intermediate goods prices declined 0.6% (-6.5% y/y), led lower by a 1.9% shortfall (-3.1% y/y) in food prices while energy costs fell 0.7% (-21.5% y/y). Intermediate goods prices excluding food & energy were off 0.4% (-2.2% y/y). Crude goods prices were pulled 3.9% lower (-25.1% y/y) by a 6.7% drop (-9.2% y/y) in food price. Energy prices gained 0.9% (-45.0% y/y) and core prices fell 5.2% (11.4% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | -0.5 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Goods | -0.4 | -2.1 | -1.1 | -4.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
Foods | -1.6 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
Energy | 0.0 | -10.3 | -6.2 | -22.4 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Services | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
Construction | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -0.6 | -2.8 | -1.6 | -6.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 |