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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 12, 2015
Severe winter weather may have been a factor last month, but retail spending has been under pressure for a while. Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places fell 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) during February following an unrevised 0.8% decline in January. It was the third straight monthly shortfall. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos slipped 0.1% (+0.8% y/y) after a 1.1% decline. It also was the third straight down month. A 0.6% increase had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP. Sales in the retail control group exclude autos, gasoline, building materials & food services and align with the estimates in the GDP accounts. It was unchanged last month (+3.7% y/y) after two months of slight decline.
A 2.5% decline in auto sales (+5.4% y/y) pulled overall retail spending down last month as it followed a 0.5% rise. The fall coincides with a 2.6% deterioration in unit vehicle sales. Sales of building materials were off 2.3% (+3.9% y/y) following a 0.7% improvement.
Sales of nonstore retailers posted a 2.2% increase (8.6% y/y) after a 0.3% rise. Purchases at electronics & appliance stores, however, fell 1.2% (+0.9% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five months. Sales at furniture & home furnishings outlets ticked 0.1% lower (+5.8% y/y), the third slight decline in the last four months. Apparel store sales were roughly unchanged (+3.3% y/y), weak for the third consecutive month, and general merchandise store sales declined 1.2% (+0.8% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales increased 2.3% (3.5% y/y) following three months of decline. Food service and drinking place sales fell 0.6% (7.7% y/y) after a 1.2% dip.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales fell 0.7% (+4.8% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Food & beverage store sales moved 0.3% higher (3.6% y/y) after a 0.2% drop.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Excluding Autos | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.8 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | -0.6 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.0 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.5 | 0.5 | -1.1 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.0 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Gasoline Stations | 1.5 | -9.8 | -7.5 | -23.0 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 4.2 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.6 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 5.9 |
