The industrial commodity price index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved slightly during the last five weeks following declines which total 13.1% during the last year.

The crude oil & benzene grouping led the improvement with a 3.5% rise since late-January. The price for a barrel of WTI crude oil rallied to $50.50 as of yesterday from its January low of $45.04. Prices reached $53.14 on Tuesday. The same cannot be observed for the petro-chemical benzene where prices reached a new low last week (-62.2% y/y). Prices in the textile sector also improved 1.8% during the last month. Cotton prices led the gain with a 13.0% rise from the low (-23.3% y/y). In the miscellaneous materials grouping, prices improved 2.6% (-3.1% y/y) since the low earlier this month. Natural rubber prices led the way higher with a 13.2% rise (-14.5% y/y) since the January low. Structural panel prices notched slightly higher this month and have improved 6.7% versus last year. Prices for framing lumber, however, remain weak (-6.9% y/y), reaching the lowest level since 2013. In the metals sector, prices remain weak. The 17.2% y/y decline has left the index level at its lowest point since July 2009. Steel scrap prices led the way lower with a 39.4% y/y decline and they are down by nearly one-half from the 2011 high. Copper scrap prices have been similarly weak, posting a 43.0% decline from the 2011 high (-21.2% y/y). Aluminum prices have weakened 13.7% since the late-November high but they remain up 4.0% y/y.

Future support for commodity prices may be on the way. The current industrial output projection from the National Association for Business Economics calls for 3.5% growth in industrial production in 2015. During the last ten years, there has been a 52% correlation between the three-month change in prices and the change in industrial output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.