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Economy in Brief
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The new home sales market is unraveling...
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller February 18, 2015
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index fell 0.8% during January (0.0%
y/y) following a 0.2% December decline, revised from -0.3%. A 0.5% drop was expected in
the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy slipped
0.1% (+1.6% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. A 0.1% uptick was expected.
Final demand goods prices (34% of the total index) declined 2.1% (-3.7% y/y), led lower by a 10.3% decline (-22.2% y/y) in energy prices. Gasoline prices were off 24.0% (-44.4% y/y) while home heating oil prices declined 19.6% (-46.0% y/y). Electric power costs gained 1.2% (4.1% y/y) but natural gas prices fell 4.2% (-2.7% y/y). Finished food prices declined 1.1% (+2.5% y/y) following a 0.1% slip. Beef & veal prices increased 1.0% (23.6% y/y) but dairy product prices declined 5.7% (-7.2% y/y).
Final demand prices for goods excluding food & energy backpedaled 0.2% (+0.6% y/y) after a 0.1% gain. Passenger car prices rose 0.3% (1.0% y/y) following two months of 0.1% uptick while furniture prices increased 0.3% (+1.5% y/y). Light motor truck prices were off 0.7% (-0.1% y/y), down for the third month in the last four. Private capital equipment prices improved 0.1% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
Services prices (64% of the total index) were off 0.2% (+2.0% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Final demand trade services prices posted another strong increase of 0.5% (4.4% y/y). Prices for transportation of passengers declined 1.0% (+0.3% y/y). Prices for transportation and warehousing of goods for final demand fell 0.6% (+0.8% y/y).
Recovering by 0.4% (1.9% y/y) were construction prices for final demand (2% of the total index) following two months of being unchanged.
Intermediate demand prices of processed goods were off 2.8% (-5.5% y/y), the largest of six straight monthly declines.
Measured using the old formula, which is being phased out as the headline series, producer prices fell 2.1% (-3.3% y/y), the largest of six consecutive monthly declines. Consumer food costs moved 0.8% lower (+3.9% y/y), down for the third straight month while energy prices declined 9.6% (-20.7% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy improved 0.2% (1.5% y/y). Intermediate goods prices declined 2.8% (-5.7 y/y), led lower by an 8.3% decline (-21.2% y/y) in energy prices while food costs fell 2.5% (-0.6% y/y). Intermediate goods prices excluding food & energy were off 1.3% (-1.4% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figure is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Goods | -2.1 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -3.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
Foods | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 3.0 |
Energy | -10.3 | -6.2 | -3.8 | -22.2 | -1.0 | -0.8 | 0.2 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Services | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
Construction | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | -2.8 | -1.6 | -1.0 | -5.5 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.5 |