Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 11, 2015
The Federal Government reported a $17.544 billion budget deficit during January compared to a $10.250 billion deficit during January of 2014. For the first four months of Fiscal Year 2015, the deficit of $194.209 billion compares to a $182.840 billion deficit in the first four months of FY 2014. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $468 billion compared to $483.4 billion last year, then remain stable at $467 billion in FY 2016.
The increased deficit so far this fiscal year versus FY'14 occurred as outlays rose 8.3% y/y. A 22.7% surge in spending on health programs powered the increase. Medicare spending also rose a quickened 9.9% y/y and Social Security payments gained a stable 4.4%. National defense outlays declined 4.3% y/y but income security payments gained 1.1% y/y. Spending on education, training & social services increased 24.3% y/y while veterans benefits rose 7.1%. Net interest spending rose 2.5% y/y and Social Security spending increased a stable 4.4% y/y.
Net revenues so far in FY 2015 improved 8.7% y/y as corporate income taxes improved 35.0% y/y. Individual income taxes rose 8.2% y/y and social insurance taxes gained an easier 1.4%. Excise taxes increased a stable 2.7% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
Stock Market Volatility and Learning from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available here.
US Government Finance | Jan | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | -- | $-17.5 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.2 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. |
As a percent of GDP | -- | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | |
% of Total | FY'15 YTD | |||||
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.7% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 35.0 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 |
National Defense | 18 | -4.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
Health | 10 | 22.7 | 14.2 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
Medicare | 14 | 9.9 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
Income Security | 16 | 1.1 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 |
Social Security | 24 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
Veterans Benefits | 4 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 24.3 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 | -20.6 |
Interest | 6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 |