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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 3, 2015
During all of last year, new orders to manufacturers rose a steady 2.8%. During December, however, forward momentum lost steam. New orders fell 3.4% (-3.6% y/y) following a revised 1.7% November decline, last month reported as -0.7%. The decline was the fifth consecutive drop and exceeded expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey for a 2.2% shortfall.
Durable goods orders declined 3.3% last month and were up 0.4% y/y. This report included slight revisions to the advance durable goods figures. Industry declines were widespread. Transportation orders fell 9.1% (-7.1% y/y), machinery orders declined 3.2% (-5.6% y/y) and computers & electronic equipment orders fell 1.6% (+6.4% y/y). Electrical equipment bookings, however, improved 1.0% (2.1% y/y). Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 3.4% (-7.1% y/y) as the value of petroleum shipments fell 15.7% (-29.9% y/y) due to lower prices. Basic chemical shipments declined 0.3% (-4.4% y/y). To the upside, apparel shipments rose 1.7% (16.9% y/y) and food product shipments gained 0.8% (5.7% y/y). Durable goods shipments improved 1.3% (6.0% y/y) led by a 3.7% rise (10.6% y/y) in transportation equipment shipments. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments slipped 0.1% (+4.5% y/y).
Unfilled orders declined 0.8% (+10.1% y/y) while backlogs excluding the transportation sector were off 0.3% (+6.2% y/y). Machinery backlogs declined 1.1% (+7.3% y/y) and unfilled orders for transportation equipment fell 1.1% (+12.4% y/y). Order backlogs of computers & electronic products gained 0.4% (7.1% y/y) while unfilled orders of furniture improved 0.8% (9.8% y/y).
Inventories were off 0.3% (+2.7% y/y), the first monthly decline since May 2014. Inventories excluding the transportation sector fell 0.5% (+1.0% y/y). Nondurable goods inventories led the decline with a 1.5% fall (-2.1% y/y) that reflected an 8.8% drop (-19.2% y/y) in petroleum inventories. Basic chemical inventories fell 0.6% (+0.3% y/y) but apparel inventories gained 0.5% (24.2% y/y). Textile mill inventories improved 0.5% (2.9% y/y) and paper products inventories rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -3.4 | -1.7 | -0.7 | -3.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
Shipments | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
Inventories | -0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 |