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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 13, 2015
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index for December jumped to 100.4 following an unrevised gain to 98.1 during November. The latest level was the highest since October 2006. For all of last year, the index rose to 95.6, its highest point also since 2006.
Improvement in the component series was greatest in the percentage of firms expecting higher real sales. Also continuing to strengthen was the percentage planning to increase employment. It rose to its highest level since August 2007 but the percentage indicating few or no qualified applicants for job positions rose slightly to near the cycle high.
The percentage of companies indicated that now was a good time to expand the business jumped to its highest since July 2007 as the percentage indicating that credit was harder to get fell to the lowest level since September 2006. The percentage planning to add to inventories surged to an eight year high and the percentage planning capital expenditures jumped to the highest point since late 2007.
On the pricing front, the percentage of firms raising prices remained at the lowest level in nine months. The percentage planning price increases rebounded to the highest level since July. Labor's pricing power strengthened. The percentage of firms raising worker compensation gained to its highest point since early 2008. The percentage planning to raise compensation jumped to the 2007 high.
The most important problems faced by small business were taxes (27%), government requirements (22%), poor sales (11%), quality of labor (11%), competition from large businesses (8%), insurance cost & availability (8%), cost of labor (4%), inflation (3%) and financial & interest rates (1%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The typical NFIB member employs 10 people and reports gross sales of about $500,000 a year. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
National Federation of Independent Business | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec'13 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986=100) | 100.4 | 98.1 | 96.1 | 93.9 | 95.6 | 92.4 | 92.2 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (SA, Net %) | 20 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 |
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (SA, Net %) | 12 | 13 | -3 | -11 | -5 | -15 | -9 |
Firms Planning to Increase Employment (SA, Net %) | 15 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
Firms With Few or No Qualified Applicants For Job Openings (SA, %) | 43 | 45 | 45 | 38 | 43 | 39 | 35 |
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (SA, Net %) | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Firms Raising Average Selling Prices (SA, Net %) | 4 | 4 | 8 | -1 | 8 | 2 | 4 |