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Economy in Brief

New York State Expected Business Conditions Index Falls to Recovery Low
by Tom Moeller  May 2, 2014

The Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, in New York State deteriorated in April to 58.8 from 65.6 in March. It was the lowest level of the economic recovery. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity. The reading of current economic conditions also fell to 50.6, the lowest level since June. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP.

The prices paid index backpedaled m/m to 57.7 from 65.2. Since the figure is not seasonally adjusted, however, a comparison to 51.6 twelve months earlier is appropriate and shows a pickup in pricing power. The index of current revenues of 56.3 was down sharply from recent months, but since the figure also is not seasonally adjusted, a comparison with 51.7 twelve months ago is appropriate.

The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

ISM New York (Diffusion Index) Apr Mar Feb Apr'13 2013 2012 2011
Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) 58.8 65.6 76.3 64.0 65.0 64.9 66.2
Current Economic Conditions (SA) 50.6 52.0 57.0 58.3 58.4 55.2 56.9
Prices Paid (NSA) 57.7 65.2 66.7 51.6 55.3 56.4 58.8
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