Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller December 22, 2011
The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Indicators index rose 0.5% during November following an unrevised 0.9% October jump. The gain beat the Consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. The breadth of increase amongst the leader's components continued wide as 70% rose versus October. The rise in the index reflected a steeper interest rate yield curve, higher building permits, stronger money supply growth, higher stock prices, fewer claims for unemployment insurance and improved consumer expectations. Vendor performance provided a negative influence as the speed of deliveries quickened. Also, average weekly hours fell as did factory orders for consumer goods.
Evidence of current economic weakness also was in the Conference Board's report. The index of coincident indicators ticked up just 0.1% after a 0.2% October rise. As calculated by the Conference Board, the index rose at a moderate 1.6% rate during the last six months. The 1-month diffusion index of the indicators slipped to 75% as payroll employment, real personal income and business sales rose but industrial production fell.
In a sign that the buildup of economic excesses eased, the November lagging indicator index rose just 0.1%. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators, which tends to "lead" the "leaders," was unchanged at its lowest level since February 2010.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figure is the Consensus in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leading | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
Coincident | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
Lagging | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.8 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |