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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller December 16, 2011
There's still little pricing power in the U.S. economy. The
November Consumer Price Index slipped marginally following a slight
October decline. The decline compared with expectations for a 0.1%
uptick. Consumer prices less food & energy were slightly firmer
and rose 0.2% following two consecutive 0.1% upticks. The gain was
firmer than expectations for a 0.1% uptick. Over several months,
price inflation still looks contained. On a three-month basis, the
CPI is up at a 0.8% annual rate and that's lower than its April peak
of 6.2%. Core inflation was 1.5% over the last three months, down as
well from its 3.1% July peak.
Energy prices led the CPI lower last month with a 1.6% decline (+12.4% y/y). Gasoline prices fell 2.4% (+19.7% y/y) following a 3.1% October drop. Fuel oil prices, however, rose a not seasonally adjusted 2.3% (19.7% y/y). Food & beverage prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month but the 4.4% y/y gain remained the strongest since early-2009. Strength continued in dairy products (8.7% y/y), meats (6.9% y/y) and cereal products (6.2% y/y).
For goods alone, core prices rose 0.1% after two months of decline. Apparel prices rose 0.6% (4.8% y/y) while motor vehicle prices fell 0.3% (+3.2% y/y). Household furnishings & operations prices were unchanged (0.8% y/y).
Core service prices rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) for the fifth straight month. Education costs were strong and rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) and medical care service prices also rose 0.5% (3.5% y/y). Shelter costs, which are 32% of the CPI, rose 0.2% but the y/y change held at 1.8% versus its 0.4% dip last year. Owners equivalent rent of primary residences, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, edged up 0.1%. The 1.7% y/y increase is up from its lowest of no-change for all of last year. Public transportation prices rose 0.1% (5.3% y/y) while recreation costs also inched up 0.1% (0.3% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, fell 0.1% (+3.2% y/y). Chained prices less food & energy was unchanged m/m (1.9% y/y).
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in CPIDATA. The expectations figure is the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Price Index (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
Food & Beverages | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
Energy | -1.6 | -2.0 | 2.0 | 12.4 | 9.6 | -18.2 | 13.7 |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |