Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 5, 2011
Manufacturing orders fell 0.4% during October following a 0.1% September slip, revised from the 0.3% rise reported last month. The latest decline roughly matched Consensus expectations. For durable goods only, orders fell 0.5% and were roughly unchanged from the advance report of a 0.7% decline. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, fell 0.3% (13.2% y/y). The change was held back by a 0.9% decline (+29.5% y/y) in petroleum shipments and a 0.3% slip (+8.7% y/y) in basic chemicals. Offsetting these were a 2.4% rise (15.1% y/y) in apparel shipments and a 0.4% increase (11.4% y/y) in food products.
Unfilled orders rose a lessened 0.2% (7.1% y/y), held back by 0.2% declines in both electrical equipment (+17.0% y/y) and transportation equipment (+3.3% y/y). Machinery backlogs rose 1.3% (29.2% y/y) and primary metals increased 0.9% (11.4% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector increased a firm 0.9% (11.5% y/y) during October though y/y momentum has slowed. Durable goods inventories rose 0.4% (11.7% y/y). Nondurables inventories jumped 1.7% (11.3% y/y) as oil refineries inventories surged 6.3% (31.1% y/y. Apparel inventories also were strong and jumped 4.1% (20.5% y/y) while basic chemicals rose 0.5% (9.0% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
The Federal Reserve's "Duel Mandate": The Evolution of an Idea from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is available here.
Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orders | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | -21.7 | 0.5 |
Shipments | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
Inventories | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |