The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose during October to -0.13 from -0.20 in September, which was little-revised. The three-month moving average fell to -0.27, its lowest level since June. The figures have been negative for most of this year. During the last ten years there has been an 83% correlation between the Chicago Fed Index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Improvement in the Production & Income component led the index higher while Sales, Orders & Inventories ticked up. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours Series fell hard while Personal Consumption & Housing reversed most of its September rise. Forty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the index in October, while 39 made negative contributions.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. During August, 41 of the 85 component series made a positive contribution to the overall index while 44 made a negative contribution.

The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Swimming Upstream: Monetary Policy Following the Financial Crisis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.