Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
- South Africa: PPI (Apr) Government Debt (Apr-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller October 27, 2011
The U.S. economy is not yet on the firmest of footings, but its earlier slowdown eased last quarter.Real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q3. The latest was the firmest growth in four quarters and it matched Consensus expectations. Earlier figures were unrevised. Leading the improvement was strong growth in business investment and improvement in personal consumption.
Overall domestic final demand grew at an improved 3.2% rate (1.9% y/y), its greatest since Q2'10. That was led by a 16.3% jump (9.2% y/y) in business fixed investment, its strongest in five quarters. Personal consumption growth also improved to 2.4% (2.2% y/y) which was boosted by firmer growth in home furnishings & other durables (5.0% y/y) as well as services (1.7% y/y). Also, government spending did not decline as it had during the prior three quarters. Residential investment growth eased to 2.4% (1.6% y/y), but at least it wasn't negative.
This demand improvement was offset by the running down of inventories. A 1.1 percentage point subtraction from GDP's advance was the largest since Q4 of last year. Unchanged was the influence of the foreign trade sector at +0.2 percentage points. Exports rose at a 4.0% rate (5.8% y/y) and imports rose at a 1.9% rate (2.3% y/y).
Price inflation was unchanged as the chain price index held at a 2.5% rate of increase. Nevertheless, this rate of growth is double that in 2010. Growth in the PCE deflator eased to 2.4% (2.9% y/y)
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
Chained 2005 $, % AR | Q3'11 | Q2'11 | Q1'11 | Q3'11 Y/Y |
2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Domestic Product | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 3.0 | -3.5 | -0.3 |
Inventory Effect | -1.1 | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.8 | 1.6 | -0.8 | -0.5 |
Final Sales | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | -2.6 | 0.2 |
Foreign Trade Effect | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Domestic Final Sales | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -3.6 | -1.0 |
Demand Components | |||||||
Personal Consumption | 2.4 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
Business Fixed Investment | 16.3 | 10.3 | 2.1 | 9.2 | 4.4 | -17.9 | -0.8 |
Residential Investment | 2.4 | 4.2 | -2.4 | 1.6 | -4.3 | -22.2 | -23.9 |
Government Spending | 0.0 | -0.9 | -5.9 | -2.4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.6 |
Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||
GDP | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
Final Sales of Domestic Product | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.3 |