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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller October 26, 2011
The index of total mortgage applications recovered 4.9% last week to 664.0 (March 16, 1990 = 100). Nevertheless, the figure remained near the lowest since early-last month. Leading the rebound, weekly applications to purchase a home rose 6.4% w/w and recovered most of the prior week's decline. Applications to refinance also rose 4.4% but that recovered barely one quarter of the prior week's drop.
The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages was about unchanged w/w at 3.73% versus a September low of 3.57%. Nevertheless, rates remained near the record low. The effective rate on 30-year fixed rate loans also held at 4.46%. On a 30-year Jumbo mortgage the effective rate was 4.80%. Though it has narrowed slightly of late, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage was 3.30% versus 3.00% in early-September.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 10/21/11 | 10/14/11 | 10/7/11 | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 664.0 | 633.1 | 744.2 | -19.9 | 659.3 | 736.4 | 642.9 |
Purchase | 171.7 | 161.4 | 177.1 | 2.7 | 199.8 | 263.5 | 345.4 |
Refinancing | 3,564.7 | 3,396.1 | 4,072.3 | -23.3 | 3,348.1 | 3,509.2 | 2,394.1 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.65 | 3.94 (10/10) |
4.39 | 4.85 | 5.88 |