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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2011
The consumer got tired of not spending
last month. That's the message from a firm 1.1% increase in
September retail & food service sales. It followed an
upwardly revised 0.3% August increase, last month reported as
unchanged. The September gain was double the Consensus expectation
for a 0.5% rise, according to the Action Economics survey. In
another sign of recovery, the three-month increase in sales of 1.9%
(AR) improved on the negligible gains from April to July.
Improved sales of motor vehicles were a big part of last month's spending gain with a 3.6% m/m (8.5% y/y) increase. That compares to the already-reported 8.0% (10.8% y/y) rise in unit sales of motor vehicles. Excluding autos, total retail sales rose 0.6% (7.8% y/y). Expectations had been for a 0.3% rise. To fuel the autos, sales of gasoline also were firm with a 1.2% increase. (Prices rose 1.7% when seasonally adjusted by Haver.) Excluding both autos and gasoline, retail sales increased 0.5% last month (6.0% y/y), about the same as they did during the prior three months.
A 1.3% increase (7.6% y/y) in sales at clothing & accessory stores led last month's gain in retail sales, following two months of moderate decline. Also up were sales at general merchandise stores, by 0.7% (4.5% y/y). Sales of furniture & appliances rose a steady 0.6% (1.5% y/y) powered by a 1.1% increase (3.2% y/y) in furniture. Sales of electronics & appliances rose a weaker 0.2% and were unchanged y/y. Sales of building materials lagged with a 0.1% slip (+6.5% y/y). Finally, sales of food service and drinking places rose 1.2% (6.9% y/y) after much more moderate gains during the prior three months.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Future of Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
Retail Spending (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 7.9 | 6.4 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
Excluding Autos | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | -5.5 | 2.1 |
Retail Sales | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 8.1 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 3.6 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 8.5 | 10.0 | -13.7 | -14.0 |
Retail excluding Autos | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 8.0 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
Gasoline Stations | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 20.3 | 16.9 | -22.2 | 10.4 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | -2.9 | 0.9 |
Food Service | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |