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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 12, 2011
On Friday, the Commerce Department reported that sales in the wholesale sector were
essentially unchanged during July after a 0.6% jump in June. A 0.8%
increase had been generally expected. Holding back the increase was a 1.1%
decline (+16.7% y/y) in sales of nondurables. Sales of petroleum &
products fell 1.5% but still were up by one-third y/y with higher
prices. Sales of paper fell 1.2% (-0.5% y/y) and sales of apparel slipped
0.6% (-0.2% y/y). However, sales of chemicals rose 0.6% (14.5% y/y). In
the durables sector, sales were strong due to a 5.3% jump (9.4% y/y) in
motor vehicles. Furniture sales also rose a firm 3.3% (7.0% y/y) and
machinery rose 1.7% (19.0% y/y). However, these increases were offset by
lower sales of electrical equipment (+5.0% y/y) and of hardware, plumbing
and heating equipment (+5.1% y/y).
Inventories at the wholesale level posted a firm 0.8% gain, though they had been rising in excess of 1.0% m/m earlier this year. Strength in petroleum prices lifted product inventories by one-third y/y. Elsewhere amongst nondurables, apparel inventories rose 2.9% and by nearly one-third y/y while chemical inventories jumped 2.3% (18.1% y/y). Paper inventories rose 0.6% (7.0% y/y). Amongst durable goods, inventories of autos rose 0.6% (14.3% y/y) but furniture slipped 0.7% (+5.2% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories increased 10.0% y/y and machinery rose 9.9%.
The wholesale sector's inventory-to-sales ratio ticked up again to 1.17, its highest level in nine months. The increase was led by a surge in the apparel sector's ratio to its highest since 1996 (no typo). The paper industry's ratio also surged as did the ratio in the chemical industry. In the durables sector, the ratio held comparatively low except for a surge in computer equipment.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sales | -0.0 | 0.6 | -0.3 | 14.4 | 12.6 | -16.1 | 5.9 |
Inventories | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 15.1 | 11.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
I/S Ratio | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.30 | 1.21 |