Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Japan: Machinery Orders (Mar), Housing Credit, Loans for Equipment Funds (Q1), International Trade (Apr-Pelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2011
Manufacturing orders jumped 2.4% during July after a revised 0.4% June slip. Consensus expectations were for a 1.8% gain. For durable goods only orders rose 4.1% which roughly equaled the gain in the advance report. Nondurable goods orders, which equal shipments, rose 1.0% (17.7% y/y), paced by a 4.0% rise (48.6% y/y in shipments from oil refineries with higher prices. Shipments of food products rose 0.8% (11.8% y/y) and paper products ticked up 0.3% (-0.8% y/y). Apparel shipments fell 0.8% (+3.6% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector rose 0.5% (12.8% y/y) during July after an upwardly revised 0.4% June gain. Durable goods inventories rose 0.9% (12.7% y/y) with the strength in transportation, metals and machinery. Nondurables inventories slipped 0.1% (+13.0% y/y) due to a 1.8% drop (+39.5% y/y) in oil refineries. Apparel inventories jumped 2.4% (20.1% y/y) and basic chemicals inched up 0.2% (8.6% y/y).
Growth in unfilled orders rebounded 0.8%. The modest 7.1% y/y gain still masks, however, the strength of a 13.6% rise in backlogs less the transportation sector. It was led by a one-third rise in backlogs of machinery and a 19.8% gain in electrical equipment, appliances & components. Transportation industry backlogs rose 0.7% and just 2.8% y/y.
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in AS1REPNA.
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
Factory Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Jul | Jun | May | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orders | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 12.9 | -17.7 | 0.5 |
Shipments | 1.6 | 0.6 | -0.0 | 12.6 | 8.6 | -18.5 | 2.3 |
Inventories | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 12.8 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -2.1 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |