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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller August 15, 2011
The National Association of Home Builders reported that its August index of housing market activity held m/m at 15. Though the latest figure remained above the all-time low of 8 reached in January of 2009, it was at the low end of the recent range. The August figure matched Consensus expectations. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in the index and the change in housing starts.
The index of single-family home sales notched higher to 15, and that was up modestly from the June low. However, it remained down from levels near 80 in 2004. The index of sales during the next six months fell back after a modest July gain. The home builders' index of traffic of prospective buyers ticked up m/m but remained near its low for this year. By region, the index for the Northeast improved the most m/m offset by a decline in the Midwest and stability elsewhere. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted.
The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, improved in Q1 to 74.6%, another record high, buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. During the last ten years there has been a 80% correlation between the y/y change in the index and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985.The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 15 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
Single-Family Sales | 16 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 16 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 19 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
Northeast | 19 | 15 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 17 |
Midwest | 10 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
South | 17 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 20 |
West | 15 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 13 |