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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
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U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca August 11, 2011
Japan’s total machinery orders rose by 5.6% in June after falling by 2.3% in May. Orders are up at a 28% rate
over three months for the period following the onset of tis natural disasters. Orders are also up by 10.9% Yr/Yr.
Core orders which exclude big ticket projects are up by 7.7% in June and 3% in May They are rising at a 32% annual rate over three months and are up by 17.7% Yr/Yr.
The slump in the global economy can be seen in the foreign order/domestic order split. Japan’s domestic orders are surging at a 159% annual rate over three months and are up by 22% over 12-months.
Foreign demand is off as orders have dropped by 5.9% in June alone after plunging by 6.6% in May. Over three-months foreign orders are dropping at a 35% annual rate. Foreign orders are off by 3.1% over 12 months.
Japan is not getting any help in its rebuilding efforts from foreign orders. On the face of it, that does not seem to be a problem since domestic orders are so strong. But the domestic rebuilding is focused on construction efforts. Japan could use more support from a more robust foreign sector that would provide better order diversity. Japan traditionally does depend a lot on its ability to export.
The rest of the world will not benefit too much from Japan’s rebuilding since it is literally that and it will be done locally. There will be raw martial shipments like lumber and the like, but most of the heavy lifting will be done at home.
Japan’s orders are an example of how the shift in global demand is already creating a negative impulse. Japan is seeing a drop in foreign orders, the US is seeing export weakness. It looks as though the negative shock is reverberating around the global economy and that means it will reinforce itself. This is disturbing not just for Japan but for prospects for overall world growth.
Japan Machinery Orders | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M/M % | SAAR % | ||||||
SA | Jun-11 | May-11 | Apr-11 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 12Mo |
Total | 5.6% | -2.3% | 3.1% | 28.1% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 30.2% |
Core Orders* | 7.7% | 3.0% | -3.3% | 32.5% | 31.4% | 17.7% | 3.6% |
Total Orders | |||||||
Foreign Demand | -5.9% | -6.6% | -2.1% | -45.1% | -12.4% | -3.1% | 76.2% |
Domestic demand | 21.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 159.2% | 7.9% | 22.5% | 7.0% |
* Excl ships and electric power |