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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 27, 2011
New orders for durable goods fell 2.1% last month following an unrevised 1.9% May rise. A 0.4% increase had been the Consensus expectation. Transportation sector orders led the fall and slumped 8.5% (+9.5% y/y). Bookings for aircraft & parts fell 26.0% (+11.4% y/y) and reversed the prior month's jump. Nondefense aircraft orders fell 28.9% (+41.1% y/y) while defense fell 20.5% (-17.6% y/y). Lower orders for motor vehicles & parts added to the decline with a 1.4% drop (+6.8% y/y).
Outside of the transportation sector, orders improved a slight 0.1% after the 0.7% May gain. However, trend growth is slowing. Electrical machinery orders rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y) after a 15.9% gain last year but machinery orders fell 2.3% (+4.0% y/y) following last year's 22.8% recovery. Orders for computers fell 0.8% (+5.3% y/y) and the y/y gain compares to 30.0% growth last summer. In the nondefense capital goods sector, the 4.1% orders' decline owed to the drop in aircraft, but nondefense orders less aircraft still slipped 0.4%. The 5.6% y/y gain compares to 20.8% growth at its peak in the Spring of 2010.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.5% and repeated its modest May rise. The 7.6% y/y growth just exceeded growth during 2010 and roughly equaled the gain in production of durable goods. Shipments of motor vehicles and parts rose a lessened 6.2% y/y. Less transportation altogether orders grew 9.0% y/y, about the same as during all of last year.
As the level of orders remained higher than shipments, unfilled orders continued to rise. Growth slowed last month to 0.2% yet that still left them 6.5% higher than last year. Less transportation the y/y gain was a stronger 13.3% due to a one-third surge in machinery and a nearly one-quarter jump in electrical equipment. The rate of inventory accumulation slowed considerably last month to 0.4% (12.1% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | Jun | May | Apr | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orders | -2.1 | 1.9 | -2.5 | 7.6 | 15.4 | -27.3 | -6.3 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 7.1 | 14.1 | -23.2 | -1.5 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -4.1 | 5.2 | -5.3 | 7.2 | 28.0 | -31.0 | -8.4 |
Excluding Aircraft | -0.4 | 1.7 | -0.4 | 5.6 | 17.2 | -20.4 | -1.2 |
Shipments | 0.5 | 0.5 | -1.4 | 7.6 | 6.2 | -20.4 | -2.8 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 | -21.0 | -0.1 |
Inventories | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 12.1 | 9.9 | -9.0 | -0.2 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | -12.8 | -0.7 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 13.3 | 11.6 | -12.5 | -2.1 |