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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 13, 2011
Pricing strength receded further amongst internationally traded goods last month. Overall U.S. import prices fell 0.5% after a little-revised 0.1% May increase. The decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.7% drop.
Weakness in petroleum prices, off 1.6%, led the decline as Brent crude oil fell to an average $114.04 per barrel (+53.2% y/y) versus the high of $122.68 averaged during April. Nonoil import prices also fell 0.2%, the first decline since last July. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had an 81% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Imported food & beverage prices fell 1.9% (+16.9% y/y), the second consecutive down month. Also, prices for nonoil industrial supplies fell 0.5% (+13.9% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods rose a minimal 0.1% (1.1% y/y). Apparel prices jumped 1.1% (7.9% y/y). However, furniture prices rose just 0.1% (4.0% y/y) and home entertainment equipment prices declined 2.5% (-11.9% y/y. Imported auto prices rose 0.3% (2.9% y/y) while imported capital goods prices were unchanged (1.5% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices fell 0.2% during June (-3.9% y/y). Excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.2% and by a much-strengthened 3.9% y/y.
U.S. export prices rose just 0.1%. Agricultural prices rose 0.7%, up nearly one-third from last year, led by a one-half increase in the price of wheat. That gain was accompanied by no-change in non-agricultural goods (7.8% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies slipped 0.7% but remained up 19.8% y/y. Capital goods price gains also have been moderate. To the upside, nonauto consumer goods prices have risen 5.2% y/y.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Today's House testimony by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports - All Commodities | -0.5 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 13.6 | 6.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 |
Petroleum | -1.6 | -0.9 | 8.1 | 49.8 | 28.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 |
Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | -4.1 | 5.3 |
Exports - All Commodities | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 |
Agricultural | 0.7 | -2.0 | 0.4 | 31.2 | 7.9 | -12.8 | 21.6 |
Nonagricultural | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 7.8 | 4.6 | -3.7 | 4.5 |