Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
- South Africa: PPI (Apr) Government Debt (Apr-Prelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller July 11, 2011
Consumers seem to have retrieved their credit cards, earlier stowed in
the dresser drawer. Reported late Friday, overall consumer credit rose
$5.1B during May following a $5.7B April advance, revised down from $6.3B
reported last month. A $5.0B increase was expected by Action Economics.
Following earlier declines, credit has risen during the last eight months
at a 2.3% annual rate (1.0% y/y).
Consumers stopped paying down their revolving credit balances during May. The $3.3B advance was the first gain since December and lessened the y/y decline to 4.4%. Prior to 2009, revolving credit usage had never been negative y/y. Pools of securitized assets dropped 15.6% y/y and commercial bank credit fell 4.4%. Meanwhile, finance company credit rose 5.8% y/y while savings institution credit jumped 16.0%. Credit union lending rose a diminished 2.3% y/y and nonfinancial business credit remained unchanged.
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of the total, rose for the tenth straight month. The weakened $1.8B May increase pulled the y/y change to 3.8%, its strongest since June, 2008. Loans by the Federal government rose by more than two-thirds y/y but finance company lending dropped 7.1%. Commercial bank credit fell 5.8% y/y while saving institutions lending was off 1.1%. Nonfinancial business credit remained unchanged but pools of securitized assts fell 19.3%.
During the last ten years, there has been a 53% correlation between the y/y change in credit outstanding and the change in personal consumption expenditures, although the correlation recently has weakened considerably. The credit figures are the major input to the Fed's quarterly Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector.
The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Upstream Capital Flows: Why Emerging Markets Send Savings To Advanced Economies from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
Consumer Credit
Outstanding (M/M Chg, SAAR) |
May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $5.1B | $5.7B | $4.3B | 1.0% | -1.7% | -4.4% | 1.5% |
Revolving | 3.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.5 | -9.6 | 1.7 |
Non-revolving | 1.8 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | -1.3 | 1.5 |