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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
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Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 24, 2011
New orders for durable goods improved 1.9% last month following an April decline of 2.7%, initially reported as -3.6%. The latest increase matched Consensus expectations. Transportation sector orders rebounded 5.8% (14.7% y/y) as bookings for aircraft & parts jumped by one-quarter (26.2% y/y). Orders for motor vehicles & parts ticked up all of 0.6% after April's 5.3% decline due to the earthquake in Japan.
Outside of the transportation sector, orders improved a slight 0.6% after the 0.4% April downtick. The y/y gain of 7.2% compares to 18.5% this time last year. Electrical machinery orders rose 3.2% (6.6% y/y) and machinery orders rose 1.2% (11.2% y/y). Orders for computers rose 1.3% (8.0% y/y) and reversed all of April's decline, but that y/y gain compares to 30.0% growth last summer. In the capital goods sector the trend gain has weakened, much of that due to commercial aircraft where orders have been roughly unchanged for a year. Excluding aircraft, orders jumped 1.6% last month, though the 10.5% y/y increase is half that this time last year.
Shipments of durable goods inched up 0.3% last month after April's 1.4% drop. The 6.2% y/y growth equaled that of 2010 and roughly equaled the gain in production of durable goods. Shipments of motor vehicles and parts rose 10.4% y/y. Less transportation altogether, the 6.3% y/y gain is half that early in 2010.
As the level of orders remained higher than shipments, unfilled orders continued to rise. The 0.9% May increase pulled them up 6.3% y/y. Less transportation the gain is a stronger 13.6% due to a one-third surge in machinery and a one-quarter jump in electrical equipment. The rate of inventory accumulation remained a strong 1.2% last month (13.0% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Durable Goods NAICS Classification (%) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orders | 1.9 | -2.7 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 15.4 | -27.3 | -6.3 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.6 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 7.2 | 14.1 | -23.2 | -1.5 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 5.8 | -5.6 | 5.0 | 14.1 | 28.0 | -31.0 | -8.4 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.6 | -0.8 | 5.4 | 10.5 | 17.2 | -20.4 | -1.2 |
Shipments | 0.3 | -1.4 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | -20.4 | -2.8 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | -0.7 | 2.5 | 6.3 | 8.7 | -21.0 | -0.1 |
Inventories | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 13.0 | 9.9 | -9.0 | -0.2 |
Excluding Transportation | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 11.2 | 7.6 | -12.8 | -0.7 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | -15.2 | 4.3 |
Excluding Transportation | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 13.6 | 11.6 | -12.5 | -2.1 |