Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2011
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that business inventories rose 0.8% in April after a revised 1.3% March increase, originally reported as 1.0%. Quick inventory accumulation nevertheless left the inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.26 near its record low. Business sales rose 0.1% (11.0% y/y) after a 2.4% March jump.
The April pickup in inventory accumulation was led by a 1.3% rise in the factory sector which roughly equaled the March and February increases. The strength in inventories was widespread amongst inventories. Durable goods inventories rose 0.9% (12.7% y/y) and nondurables rose 1.9% (11.7% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories rose 0.7% (35.6% y/y). Factory shipments slipped 0.2% (+10.9% y/y)
Retail inventories rose 0.8% after the upwardly revised 1.0% March jump. Auto inventories rose 0.3% (9.7% y/y). Excluding autos, inventories ticked up 0.1% (4.3% y/y). Accumulation during the last year was led by a 5.8% rise in apparel, a 5.3% gain in general merchandise, a 3.5% increase in building materials and a 2.8% gain in furniture and appliance inventories. Just-in-time inventory management lowered the retail inventory-to-sales ratio to a record low 1.33. Less autos, the retail I/S ratio fell to a record low 1.19.
Wholesale inventories rose a still-strong 0.8% in April and the gain was paced by a 3.7% rise in petroleum products (21.1% y/y). Less petroleum wholesale inventories rose 0.6% and increased a strong 13.4% y/y as business activity improved. Wholesale sales rose 0.3% in April after the 3.0% March jump with higher oil prices. Less petroleum, sales slipped 0.1% (+10.7% y/y).
The manufacturing and trade data is in Haver's USECON database. Note that in a value-added feature, the database includes series calculated by Haver database managers showing sales, inventories and I/S ratios for total business less motor vehicle dealers and related wholesale operations.
Business Inventories (%) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 10.6 | 8.6 | -9.3 | -1.2 |
Retail | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.1 | 5.7 | 6.1 | -10.0 | -4.4 |
Retail ex Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | -4.7 | -3.0 |
Wholesale | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 13.8 | 11.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
Manufacturing | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 12.3 | 8.7 | -6.8 | -4.1 |