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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
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The new home sales market is unraveling...
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S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller June 14, 2011
Total retail & food service sales slipped 0.2% last month after a 0.3% April increase and a 0.8% March gain, both revised down slightly from 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively. The May decline roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.3% drop, according to the Action Economics survey. During the last three months, sales rose at a 3.2% annual rate versus a 6.4% increase during all of last year. Excluding autos, sales rose an expected 0.3% last month after a downwardly 0.5% April gain. During the last three months, nonauto sales rose at an 8.4% annual rate after a 5.7% increase last year.
The recent down-drift in gasoline prices held back the rise in expenditures on gas to 0.3% (22.3% y/y). In addition, supply disruptions due to the earthquake & tsunami in Japan held back spending on motor vehicles & parts. The 2.9% May decline followed a 0.7% April decline. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail spending rose 0.3% last month, its weakest gain of the year. Three-month growth in sales excluding autos & gasoline fell to 6.5%.
Discretionary spending showed widespread easing. Sales of furniture, home furnishings and appliances fell 1.0% and three month growth fell to just 1.6%. May sales at furniture stores fell 0.7% (+0.4% y/y) while sales at electronics & appliance stores fell 1.3% (-0.3% y/y), down hard for the second consecutive month. Apparel store sales ticked up 0.2% (6.0% y/y) after a 0.2% April rise. Finally, sales at general merchandise outlets slipped 0.1% (4.1% y/y). Building material store sales jumped 1.2% (7.0% y/y) and sales at food service & drinking places rose 0.6% (5.3% y/y). Online shopping remains a preferred technique amongst retail shoppers. Sales of non-store retailers rose 1.2% (15.9% y/y). Currently, sales by electronic shopping & mail-order houses account for roughly ten percent of nonauto retail sales less building materials & gasoline.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (%) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 6.4 | -7.0 | -1.2 |
Excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 8.2 | 5.7 | -5.5 | 2.1 |
Retail Sales | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | -7.8 | -1.6 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | -2.9 | -0.7 | -1.4 | 5.4 | 9.9 | -13.7 | -14.0 |
Retail excluding Autos | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | -6.3 | 2.1 |
Gasoline | 0.3 | 1.4 | 3.8 | 22.3 | 16.8 | -22.2 | 10.4 |
Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 6.4 | 4.5 | -3.3 | 0.7 |
Food Service | 0.6 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 2.2 |