Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller June 3, 2011
The two headline figures from the May employment report were dreary. The Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the 54,000 worker rise in payrolls was the weakest in nearly twelve months and noted that the unemployment rate rose to 9.1%, its highest of 2011. In addition, payroll gains in the prior two months were revised down by a collective 39,000. The latest gain in payrolls fell short of Consensus expectations for a 190,000 increase and a decline in the unemployment rate to 8.9%.
From the payroll survey, total
payrolls increased just 54,000 due to broad-based weakness. Factory
sector payrolls fell 5,000, the weakest showing since October.
Construction payrolls also rose just 2,000, the weakest rise this
year. Private service sector jobs, which account for 84% of private
sector employment, rose only 80,000, the weakest gain since January.
Weakness was led by an 8,500 decline (+0.7% y/y) in retail and a
6,000 decline (+1.6% y/y) in leisure & hospitality. Jobs in
professional & business services rose a steady 44,000 (3.1%
y/y), education & health rose 34,000 (2.3% y/y) and finance rose
3,000 (-0.4% y/y). Government sector employment continued quite
weak. A 29,000 worker decline (-3.7% y/y) was led by a 28,000 drop
(-1.9% y/y) in local government, then a 2,000 slip (-0.5% y/y) at
the state level and a 1,000 increase (-16.5% y/y) in federal
employees.
From the household survey, the rise in the unemployment rate to 9.1% reflected a 105,000 (0.3% y/y) rise in employment, which just recovered a 190,000 April decline, and a 272,000 increase (-0.4% y/y) in the labor force. Despite the labor force gain, the participation rate fell to 45.1%, the lowest since 2007. The overall unemployment rate, which includes marginally attached workers and those working part time for economic reasons, held at 15.8%. For workers aged 16 to 19, the unemployment rate was 24.2%. The median duration of unemployment lengthened to a record 39.7 weeks as 45.1% of those unemployed have been jobless for more than 27 weeks.
The diffusion index of hiring, showing the breadth of employment gain, fell to 53.6% over a one-month period but remained firm at 70.4% over a six-month span.
Average hourly earnings rose another 0.3% as earnings in the service-producing sector rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) and factory sector earnings ticked up 0.1% (1.8% y/y).
The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail can be found in the LABOR and in the EMPL databases. The expectation figures are from Action Economics and are in the AS1REPNA database.
Employment:(M/M Chg., 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 54 | 232 | 194 | 1.0% | -0.7% | -4.4% | -0.6% |
Previous | -- | 244 | 221 | -- | -0.5 | -4.3 | -0.6 |
Manufacturing | -5 | 24 | 20 | 1.4 | -2.7 | -11.6 | -3.4 |
Construction | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | -8.1 | -16.0 | -6.1 |
Private Service Producing | 80 | 213 | 179 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -3.5 | -0.2 |
Government | -29 | -19 | -25 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
Average Weekly Hours | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.2 (May'10) |
34.1 | 33.9 | 34.5 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% |
Unemployment Rate(%) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 9.6 (May'10) |
9.6 | 9.3 | 5.8 |