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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 26, 2011
In its second look at the economy last quarter, the Commerce Department didn't find much that was materially different versus last month's picture.Real GDP grew 1.8% (SAAR), still the weakest growth since Q2'10. The Q1 figure fell short of Consensus expectations for 2.2% growth.
Reported for the first time were corporate profits which rose 1.3% (8.5% y/y). Profits from abroad led the gain with a 12.5% increase (8.1% y/y). Nonfinancial sector earnings rose 5.2% (10.0% y/y) but earnings in the financial sector fell 16.6% (+5.4% y/y).
Weakness in last quarter's GDP components was widespread. Moreover, the weakened growth in personal consumption of 2.2% versus Q4 was a downward revision. Offsetting this was an improved, though still modest, gain in business fixed investment of 3.4%. Lessened was the decline in residential investment, now put at -3.3%. Finally, the decline in government spending was unrevised and down at a 5.1% rate, the most for any quarter since 1983. Lower defense purchases caused federal spending to fall at a deepened 11.7% rate while budget shortfalls pulled state & local spending down at a 3.2% rate, the most in a year.
Deterioration in the foreign trade deficit subtracted an unrevised 0.1 percentage points from last quarter's GDP gain, though export growth of 9.2% (8.4% y/y) was revised up and exceeded the increased 7.6% rise (10.0% y/y) in imports. Quicker inventory accumulation added an increased 1.2 percentage points to GDP growth.
Price inflation as measured by the chained GDP price index quickened to an unrevised 1.9% rate, nearly double last year's gain. The price index for domestic final demand jumped 3.7% (1.6% y/y) and the price index for final sales rose 1.9% (1.5% y/y). The GDP figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases and the expectations number is in AS1REPNA.
Chained 2005 $, % AR | Q1'11 Prelim. |
Q1'11 Adv. |
Q4 10 |
Q3 10 |
Q1'11 Y/Y |
2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.9 | -2.6 | -0.0 |
Inventory Effect | 1.2 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
Final Sales | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | -2.1 | 0.5 |
Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1 | -0.1 | 3.3 | -1.7 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 1.0 | -1.1 |
Domestic Final Demand | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -3.1 | -0.6 |
Demand Components | ||||||||
Personal Consumption | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.8 | -1.2 | -0.3 |
Business Fixed Investment | 3.4 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | -17.1 | 0.3 |
Residential Investment | -3.3 | -4.1 | 3.3 | -27.3 | -2.3 | -3.0 | -22.9 | -24.0 |
Government Spending | -5.1 | -5.2 | -1.7 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
Prices | ||||||||
Chained GDP Price Index | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 2.2 |