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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 24, 2011
Weakening demand is affecting prices in the energy market. Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline fell to $3.85 per gallon though it remained up roughly one-third y/y. Moreover, pump prices usually start rising this time of year in anticipation of increased seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price fell further to $3.56 per gallon, it's lowest since late-February. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $2.91 versus $2.86 last week, but it still was down from the late-April high of $3.30.
Weaker demand also is affecting crude oil prices which fell last week to an average $98.46 for a barrel of WTI. The price compares to the recent high of $113.93. Prices fell further yesterday to $97.70.
Higher prices continued to negatively affect demand for petroleum products. Gasoline demand fell 2.3% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Conversely, the demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, rose 7.1% y/y but distillate demand fell 2.9%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 2.2% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Finally, natural gas prices slipped w/w to $4.14 per mmbtu. Yesterday, prices recovered the decline and rose to $4.32. Prices remained down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
Household Inflation Expectations and the Price of Oil: It's Déjà Vu All Over Again from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
Weekly Price | 5/23/11 | 5/16/11 | 5/9/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.85 | 3.96 | 3.97 | 38.2 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 98.46 | 100.65 | 106.16 | 42.7 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 4.14 | 4.16 | 4.49 | -2.6 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |