Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 13, 2011
The U.S. Commerce Department reported yesterday that business inventories rose 1.0% in March after a revised 0.7% February increase, originally reported as 0.5%. A 0.9% March gain in inventories had been expected by Bloomberg. The faster rate of inventory accumulation was accompanied by an inventory-to-sales ratio which fell to a record low 1.23 as business sales jumped 2.2% (11.0% y/y).
The March pickup in inventory accumulation was led by a 1.1% rise in the factory sector which roughly equaled the February increase. The strength in inventories was widespread amongst inventories. Durable goods inventories rose 1.4% (11.6% y/y) and nondurables rose 0.8% (8.4% y/y). Factory shipments rose 2.7% (9.9% y/y) led by an 8.2% rise (30.1% y/y) in petroleum refineries.
Wholesale inventories rose a steady 1.1% in March and was paced by a 1.0% rise in petroleum products (22.1% y/y). Less petroleum wholesale inventories still rose 1.1% and increased a strong 12.8% y/y as business activity improved. Wholesale sales jumped 2.9% in March led by a 7.9% rise in petroleum (36.0% y/y). Less petroleum sales rose 2.1% (12.2% y/y).
Retail inventories rose 0.9% after a 0.1% February decline. The gain was paced by a 1.2% increase in autos (9.5% y/y). Excluding autos, inventories rose 0.8% (4.5% y/y). Accumulation during the last year was led by a 6.0% rise in apparel, a 5.8% gain in general merchandise, a 3.9% increase in building materials and a 3.6% gain in furniture and appliance inventories. Just-in-time inventory management lowered the retail inventory-to-sales ratio to a record low 1.33. Less autos, the retail I/S ratio fell to a record low 1.19.
The manufacturing and trade data is in Haver's USECON database. Note that in a value-added feature, the database includes series calculated by Haver database managers showing sales, inventories and I/S ratios for total business less motor vehicle dealers and related wholesale operations.
Business Inventories (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | -10.0 | -0.7 |
Retail | 0.9 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | -10.0 | -4.4 |
Retail ex Motor Vehicles | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 3.7 | -4.7 | -3.0 |
Wholesale | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 13.3 | 11.0 | -11.8 | 3.7 |
Manufacturing | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 10.3 | 8.3 | -8.8 | -0.8 |