Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Japan: Machinery Orders (Mar), Housing Credit, Loans for Equipment Funds (Q1), International Trade (Apr-Pelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca May 3, 2011
The UK MFG index fell unexpectedly in April. The index is on a seven month low. It is still 'strong' sitting at the 81st
percentile of its high-low range. The construction and services indices lag and are not yet in for April. The other indices are all
about at the approximate same relative point in their respective ranges with construction in March in its 77th percentile and services
also in March in the 83rd percentile.
MFG has been a consistent bright spot in the UK economy. But in April that bright light faded. The MFG index is down for three-months running. It is no longer clear that the MFG is in an uptrend. The distributive trade index for sales for this time of year plunged to -12 in April from +9 in March. Retailing is under a great deal of pressure.
The UK is struggling under surging inflation and an ongoing austerity plan that includes a hike in the VAT. The MFG sector had been the backbone of an economy that was standing up in the face of these pressures. Housing also has had some staying power. But the MFG sector was a huge prop that now is at risk.
In response to the poor MFG report the pound fell on foreign exchange markets. Growth pessimism is on the rise.
MFG, Construction and Services PMI CIPS/NTC | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monthly Readings | Change Over | ||||||
Apr-11 | Mar-11 | Feb-11 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | %-ile of Range |
|
MFG | 54.58 | 56.73 | 60.76 | -1.88 | 3.08 | -0.80 | 81.4 |
Construction | N/A | 56.41 | 56.46 | 7.36 | 2.62 | 3.34 | 77.3 |
Services* | N/A | 57.11 | 52.60 | 7.40 | 4.31 | 0.65 | 83.2 |
MFG range since January 1992; Construction Since April 1997 Services Since July 1995 | |||||||
*Services & construction changes and ranking: Mar-11 which is the most current date. |