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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 27, 2011
New orders for durable goods jumped 2.5% last month after a 0.7% February gain, revised up from -0.9% reported initially. Consensus expectations were for a 1.5% increase. Another jump in transportation sector orders fueled last month's increase. Motor vehicle & parts orders rose 3.7% (15.8% y/y) after a like increase during February. Orders for aircraft & parts also gained 2.5% (79.4% y/y) following the 14.4% February jump. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, orders rose 1.3% after a 0.6% February gain, revised from -0.6%.
Outside of the transportation sector, the gain in new orders last month was broad-based. Strength in the capital goods sector raised nondefense capital goods orders, less aircraft, by 3.7%. That gain was paced by a 4.2% increase (10.0% y/y) in machinery orders. Orders for electrical equipment & appliances also rose 3.1% (3.1% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic components fell 1.1% (-0.8% y/y). Defense capital goods bookings rose 7.6% (-17.7% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods also improved last month by 1.8% and 7.2% y/y. That gain compares to an 11.2% y/y increase in March industrial production of durable goods. Less transportation, shipments rose 1.4% (7.7% y/y) after no-change in February. Inventory accumulation continued strong last month. A 1.3% increase matched the upwardly-revised February increase and pulled inventories up 11.5% y/y. As orders outpaced shipments, unfilled orders rose 0.8%, the third consecutive like increase and 5.7% y/y.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
NAICS Classification (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | 2.5 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 13.6 | -20.7 | -9.0 |
Excluding Transportation | 1.3 | 0.6 | -2.9 | 6.1 | 13.8 | -18.4 | -2.5 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | 3.2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 20.9 | 21.9 | -26.8 | -12.6 |
Excluding Aircraft | 3.7 | 0.5 | -5.9 | 9.2 | 16.9 | -19.8 | -4.2 |