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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 13, 2011
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings &
Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the February job openings rate
improved to 2.3% from an unrevised 2.1% during January. The
latest reading was the highest since April 2010 and was improved
versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the
number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a
percent of total employment plus job openings.
The private-sector job openings rate jumped to 2.5%, the highest level since August 2008. After a January drop, professional & business services job openings rebounded smartly to 3.8%, also the highest since 2008. Openings in leisure & hospitality, education & health and construction also improved. In manufacturing, openings slipped m/m but remained double the mid-2009 level. The job openings rate in government ticked up after the January plunge to nearly its 2009 low.
The hires rate recovered to 3.0% and it equaled the second-half, 2010 average. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The 3.4% rate in the private sector also was stable with the second half of last year. The government's lower, but stable, 1.2% rate was up from the low but the actual number of hires was down 13.0% y/y. Hires in arts, entertainment & recreation were strongest with a 21.2% y/y rise followed by a 13.2% gain in professional & business services. During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the total hires rate and the m/m change in payroll employment.
The job separations rate ticked up to 2.9% from close to its cycle low. The actual number of separations recovered most of its sharp 5.8% drop but also remained near the cycle low. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate alone remained at its all-time low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate was 1.4% and in the public sector it was 0.5%.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,093 | 2,741 | 2,921 | 2,523 | 2,921 | 2,369 | 2,937 |
Hires, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 35.9 | 34.6 | 39.3 |
Total (000s) | 3,907 | 3,769 | 3,905 | 3,784 | 46,557 | 45,207 | 53,901 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 16.0 | 19.9 | 17.6 |
Total (000s) | 1,591 | 1,541 | 1,677 | 1,755 | 20,614 | 26,191 | 23,705 |