Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 12, 2011
The National Federation of Independent Business indicated that its index of small business optimism fell to 91.9 in March from an unrevised 94.5 in February. The latest was the lowest level since October. Deterioration amongst the sub-series was widespread. The percentage of firms expecting the economy to improve turned negative, falling to its lowest since September. Firms expecting higher real sales in six months also fell sharply.
The number of firms with job openings now remained constant at its highest since September 2008 but the percentage of firms planning to add jobs fell sharply. The credit crunch seemed, however, to ease as firms indicating that credit was harder to get fell to its lowest since June 2008. The percentage of firms planning as well as currently raising prices increased further to the highest since late-2008.
Businesses planning a capital expenditure during the next six months rose slightly and the percentage with few or no qualified job applicants for job openings slipped.
The most important problems faced by small business were poor sales (25%), government requirements (17%), taxes (17%), inflation (8%), insurance cost and availability (7%), quality of labor (6%), competition from large businesses (6%), and financial & interest rates (4%).
Roughly 24 million small businesses exist in the U.S. and they create 80% of all new jobs. The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
The Big Impact of Small Business from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
Nat'l Federation of Independent Business | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Small Business Optimism Index (SA,1986=100) | 91.9 | 94.5 | 94.1 | 86.8 | 89.9 | 86.7 | 89.8 |
Firms Expecting Higher Real Sales In Six Months (Net %) | 6 | 14 | 13 | -3 | 1 | -11 | -7 |
Firms Expecting Economy To Improve (Net %) | -5 | 9 | 10 | -8 | -1 | -0 | -10 |
Firms With One or More Job Openings (Net %) | 15 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
Firms Reporting That Credit Was Harder To Get (Net %) | 8 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
Firms Raising Avg. Selling Prices (Net %) | 9 | 5 | -4 | -20 | -12 | -20 | 17 |