The Chicago Fed reported that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) remained negative last month at -0.04 versus an upwardly revised -0.01 in January, initially reported at -0.16. The index was down sharply since its March '10 peak, though it has recovered lately from its low. The three-month moving average of the index, which smoothes out some of the series' volatility, improved modestly to 0.11. The personal consumption & housing component was negative in February.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI suggests that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth. During the last ten years it's had an 77% correlation with the quarterly growth in real GDP.

A separate index covering just Midwest manufacturing activity rose its highest level since November 2008 due to broad-based improvement amongst sectors. The Chicago Federal Reserve figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Output Gaps: Uses and Limitations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here