Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2011
Broad-based improvement in pricing power continued last month.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in February following 0.4% gains during
the prior two months. The rise beat Consensus expectations for a 0.4%
increase. The y/y gain of 2.2% was the strongest since March of last year
and the three-month increase of 5.6% (AR) was the firmest since mid-2008.
Core price inflation also has improved, but more modestly. The CPI less
food & energy rose 0.2% versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1%
uptick. The y/y gain of 1.1% was the firmest since last March and the 1.8%
three-month was the strongest since late-2009.
Energy prices led last month's gain with a 3.4% increase. Gasoline prices gained 4.7% (19.2% y/y) while home heating oil prices rose 4.1% (NSA, 17.9% y/y). Prices for natural gas & electricity increased 1.1% and by 0.2% y/y. Food & beverage prices rose another 0.5%. The gain was backed by a 2.2% jump in fruit & vegetable prices (4.3% y/y) and a 1.2% increase in meat, poultry, fish & eggs (6.9% y/y).
Core consumer pricing power posted a second 0.2% increase. For goods alone prices rose 0.2%, also for the second month, led by a 0.5% increase (0.5% y/y) in motor vehicles. Prices for household furnishings & operation ticked up 0.1% (-1.9% y/y) but apparel prices fell 0.9% (-0.4% y/y).
Pricing power for core services also improved slightly to 0.2% (1.5% y/y). To the upside, public transportation costs again led the gain with a 1.9% increase (9.7% y/y). Education costs were strong and posted a 0.4% increase (4.1% y/y) while medical care service prices also rose 0.4% (3.0% y/y). Shelter costs, which are 32% of the CPI, rose 0.1% for the fifth straight month; however, the y/y change improved to 0.8% due to declines early last year. Owners equivalent rent of primary residences, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, ticked up 0.1% while the y/y increase improved to 0.6% after no change last year. Nevertheless, the reading remained nearly the weakest since the series' start in 1983.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, rose 0.5% and 2.0% year-to-year. Chained prices less food & energy jumped 0.4% m/m and rose 0.9% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in the CPIDATA database.
Consumer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
Energy | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 11.2 | 9.6 | -18.2 | 13.7 |
Food & Beverages | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |