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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller March 16, 2011
The U.S. Producer Price Index for finished goods jumped 1.6%
last month and doubled its January increase. The latest increase was
significantly greater than Consensus expectations for a 0.7% gain. Less food & energy,
pricing pressures eased. The 0.2% increase was less than half the January
increase and matched Consensus expectations.
Energy prices again were strong and posted a 3.3% increase (15.3% y/y) as gasoline prices increased a not seasonally adjusted 2.4% (26.3% y/y). Since the late-2008 low, gasoline prices have more-than-doubled. Home heating oil prices also were strong, posting a 7.0% (37.4% y/y) increase. Natural gas prices rose a lesser 2.3% (-2.3% y/y) and electricity prices rose 1.1% (4.6% y/y). Food prices also spiked by 3.9% (7.4% y/y). The strength owed to a nearly one-half surge in fresh fruit & vegetable costs (73.9% y/y) and a 7.6% jump (-3.9% y/y) in egg prices.
Finished consumer goods prices jumped 2.1% (7.5% y/y) with the gain in food & energy. Core prices rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y). Furniture prices rose 1.7% y/y but passenger car prices fell 1.7%. Men's apparel prices increased 3.1% y/y while women's clothing prices rose 0.3%. Capital goods prices inched up 0.1% last month and by 0.8% y/y.
Intermediate goods prices jumped 2.0% as energy prices surged 4.3% (15.7% y/y). Food prices also strengthened by 2.6% (9.9% y/y). Core-intermediate prices remained firm and rose another 1.1% (5.4% y/y). The 3.4% m/m increase in crude goods prices also roughly matched the January gain as energy prices rose 0.9% (0.0% y/y) and food prices increased 6.7% (9.1% y/y). Continuing to reflect strength in the industrial sector, core crude prices posted a 2.3% increase (28.4% y/y) paced by higher iron & steel scrap (32.3% y/y), aluminum base scrap (27.6% y/y) and copper scrap (25.8% y/y) prices.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR.
Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
Producer Price Index (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Finished Goods | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | -2.5 | 6.4 |
Energy | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 15.3 | 13.8 | -17.7 | 14.1 |
Food | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 3.9 | -1.4 | 6.8 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.4 |
Intermediate Goods | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | -8.4 | 10.3 |
Less Food & Energy | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | -4.2 | 7.4 |
Crude Materials | 3.4 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 16.0 | 21.4 | -30.3 | 21.5 |
Less Food & Energy | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 28.4 | 32.6 | -23.4 | 14.7 |