Volatility is the keyword for recent bookings in most categories of the durable goods factory sector, but the trend remains positive. Stronger orders for aircraft & parts were behind the advance report of a 2.7% jump in January durable goods orders. The gain followed a 0.4% December decline that was previously reported at down 2.3%. Excluding the transportation sector altogether, orders fell 3.6% after a 3.0% December increase. The overall volatility of orders owed to a recovery in commercial aircraft bookings following a December evaporation. Also, motor vehicle orders ticked up 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) after a 2.6% December gain. Outside of the volatility in transportation, durable goods orders slumped 3.6% following a 3.0% December gain that was initially reported as 0.5%.

Orders in most other categories were quite volatile during the last two months. Machinery orders fell 13.0% (+25.4% y/y) after a 16.6% December gain. Orders for computers & electronic products fell 6.8% (+2.8% y/y) following a December uptick. Electrical equipment orders slumped 4.9% (+10.3% y/y) after a similarly small December rise. Orders for nondefense capital goods greatly reflected the volatility in aircraft with a 4.6% gain, but excluding aircraft they fell 6.9% after a 4.3% December jump.

Shipments of durable goods again were more stable than orders. They continued to trend higher and increased 0.3% (5.6% y/y) after a 2.3% December gain. Less transportation, shipments rose 0.5% (9.9% y/y) after a 2.0% December gain. Despite these gains, there was a 5.8% decline (+15.4% y/y) in machinery after 7.5% December jump. Behind the improving trend in factor sector activity was continuing accumulation of inventories. A 0.7% January gain was much like those during all of last year when inventories rose 9.3%. Unfilled orders also moved higher last month by 0.5% (4.4% y/y).

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database.