Recent Updates
- Finland: Tourism Statistics (Apr)
- Japan: Index of Business Condition (Mar)
- Korea: Medical Trade by Countries (Apr)
- Malaysia: Leading, Coincident and Lagging Indices (Mar), CPI (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 17, 2011
Pricing power improved last month -- everywhere. The Consumer Price
Index rose 0.4% in January, the same as in December, but generally higher than
prior months. Consensus expectations were for a 0.3% rise. Core price inflation
bumped up as the CPI less food & energy rose 0.2%, its strongest increase
since October 2009. Consensus expectations were for a 0.1% uptick. The latest
figures reflect benchmark revisions of seasonal factors.
Energy prices posted a 2.1% gain last month and by 7.5% y/y. Home heating oil prices led the increase with a 5.4% jump (NSA, 11.8% y/y) while gasoline prices advanced 3.5% for the month and by 13.4% from 12-months earlier. Prices for natural gas & electricity fell 0.6% and by 0.6% y/y. Food & beverage prices firmed with a 0.5% increase, the strongest gain since September 2008. Strength in fruits & vegetables (2.3% y/y) and meat, poultry, fish & eggs (6.2% y/y) prices lifted the monthly gain.
Core consumer pricing power firmed last month by 0.2% after months of virtually no-change. The 12-month gain improved to 0.9%. For goods alone, prices rose 0.2% after four consecutive months of slight decline. A 1.0% (-0.0% y/y) increase in apparel led the latest rise. Prices for household furnishings & operation ticked up 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) while new and used motor vehicle prices slipped for the fifth straight month (+0.5% y/y).
Pricing power for core services also improved. The 0.1% increase caused the y/y gain to rise to 1.4%. To the upside, public transportation costs again led last month's gain with a 1.7% increase (7.7% y/y). Education costs were strong and posted a 0.6% increase (4.2% y/y). Shelter costs, which are 32% of the CPI, rose 0.1% for the fourth straight month, however, the y/y change improved to 0.6% due to declines early last year. Owners equivalent rent of primary residences, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, ticked up 0.1% while the y/y increase improved to 0.5% after no change last year. Nevertheless, the reading remained the weakest since the series' start in 1983. Medical care prices slipped 0.1% (+3.0% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in consumption patterns, rose 0.5% and 1.4% year-to-year. Chained prices less food & energy ticked up 0.1% m/m but rose 0.7% y/y.
The consumer price data is available in Haver's USECON database while detailed figures can be found in the CPIDATA database.
Consumer Price Index (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.3 | 3.8 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
Services less Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
Energy | 2.1 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 9.6 | -18.2 | 13.7 |
Food & Beverages | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 5.4 |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 3.7 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |