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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Recover
by Tom Moeller  February 9, 2011

Consumers grow tired of not spending. So last week, sales at chain stores rose 2.2% after four consecutive weeks of decline. The increase brought sales 0.8% above the January average which was down 2.3% from December. During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has increased. General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales.

The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise retail sales. The weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

The leading indicator of chain store sales rose 1.3% last week following a like decline during the week prior. The index has moved sideways since August. The composite leading economic indicator is compiled from four series: (1) the MBA's volume index of mortgage applications for home purchase (2) the ABC News/Money magazine's survey of consumer buying conditions (3) new filings for jobless benefits and (4) the 30-year government bond yield.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 2/5/11 1/29/11 1/22/11 Y/Y 2010 2009 2008
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 499.1 488.2 493.2 2.5% 2.9% 0.1% 1.4%
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