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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca February 8, 2011
Not surprisingly German orders and IP show similar characteristics. In the orders report capital goods are strong and
consumption orders are weak. For the IP it is the same relative configuration, but with even weaker trends for intermediate goods.
German IP has slowed sharply. Its Yr/Yr growth is now at 10% capital goods output is still raging strong at 20%. And capital goods output is accelerating. But overall output is losing steamed as growth has gone from 9.9% over 12-months to 3.5% over six months to 2.7% over three months. Consumer goods output is declining at an accelerating pace and intermediate goods output is too. Capital goods strength is not enough to keep overall IP accelerating.
Despite the clear erosion in output, orders have had a revival after a period of slowing. So it is not certain that there is any trend in German output that we need to be worried about. The orders series is expected to be more of a leading indicator and its revival in December may signal that he drop off in the pace of output is temporary.
Total German IP | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SAAR Except M/M | Dec-10 | Nov-10 | Oct-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Quarter- 2-Date |
IP total | -1.5% | -0.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% |
Consumer | -1.3% | -0.8% | 0.3% | -6.8% | -1.2% | 0.4% | -2.1% |
Capital | 3.3% | -0.5% | 4.6% | 33.5% | 20.5% | 20.8% | 26.9% |
Intermed | -3.1% | -0.4% | 1.9% | -6.4% | -2.2% | 11.3% | 0.6% |
Memo | |||||||
Construction | -24.1% | -1.5% | 3.1% | -64.8% | -40.0% | -18.2% | -23.0% |
MFG IP | -0.1% | -0.5% | 2.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 13.1% | 10.3% |
MFG Orders | -3.4% | 5.2% | 0.0 | 14.6% | 2.8% | 19.5% | 11.2% |