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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller January 27, 2011
There's hardly a more volatile component of the durable goods orders report
than aircraft & parts. Last month's orders halved, pulling overall
transportation orders down 12.8%. The declined owed to an evaporation of orders
for commercial aircraft. Outside of this volatility in transportation, durable
goods orders inched up 0.5% after a strong 4.5% November rise which was revised
up sharply from 2.4%. For all of last year total durable goods orders rose
13.5%.
During last month, primary metals orders fell back 4.7% (+18.9% y/y) after their November surge. Computer orders also fell 1.2% (+10.4% y/y) and electrical equipment orders slipped 0.1% (+21.7% y/y) following an 8.6% November surge. Mitigating these declines was a 10.6% jump (23.5% y/y) in machinery orders.
Shipments of durable goods were more stable last month and increased 1.4% (4.1%) led by a 6.7% jump (13.7% y/y) in machinery. For the year shipments rose 7.2% following sharp declines both in 2008 and 2009. Not only have higher orders & shipments been powering activity in the factory sector but there's been a turn toward inventory accumulation since February. Inventories accumulated another 0.7% (9.0% y/y) in December following a 0.9% November increase. For all of last year inventories rose 9.0% after a 12.8% decline in 2009. Finishing the durables report was a modest 3.7% rise in unfilled orders last year after an 11.1% 2009 decline.
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durable Goods Orders | -2.5 | -0.1 | -3.1 | 6.9 | 13.5 | -20.7 | -9.0 |
Excluding Transportation | 0.5 | 4.5 | -2.0 | 11.5 | 13.6 | -18.4 | -2.5 |
Nondefense Capital Goods | -6.3 | -8.1 | -3.8 | 10.0 | 21.6 | -26.8 | -12.6 |
Excluding Aircraft | 1.4 | 3.1 | -3.2 | 15.5 | 16.6 | -19.8 | -4.2 |