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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 25, 2011
First home prices fell through early-2009. Then they rose modestly until this past June with the help of the government tax credit. But during the last five months, they resumed their decline. During November, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.5% following two monthly declines of 1.0% each. No change in prices was the Consensus expectation. It was the fifth consecutive month of decline and the index level was down 1.6% from last November. The narrower 10 City Composite Home Price Index of prices declined 0.4% during November, also down for the fifth month.
The performance of home prices continued to vary around the country. During November, the 12-month change in prices remained the strongest in the West. In San Diego prices rose 2.6% y/y, in Los Angeles prices rose 2.1%, and in San Francisco by 0.4%. These gains follow earlier sharp declines. Also, prices rose 3.5% in Washington D.C. following double-digit declines during 2008 and 2009. Elsewhere, prices remained depressed. Prices fell 7.9% y/y in Atlanta, 7.6% in Chicago, 7.1% in Detroit, 7.0% in Portland and by 4.2% in Charlotte. Lesser declines were logged in Denver (-2.6%) and New York (-1.7%). In San Francisco (+0.4%) and Los Angeles (+2.1%) prices rose.
During the last four years, home prices have fallen 29.9% overall led by declines of 57.0% in Las Vegas, 53.3% in Phoenix, 42.5% in Tampa and 35.3% in San Francisco. Prices fell a lesser 23.7% in Washington, D.C., 20.8% in New York, 11.5% in Boston, 9.3% in Denver and 7.4% in Dallas.
The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price series can be found in Haver's USECON database and the city data highlighted below is in the REGIONAL database.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. | Oct. | Sept. | Nov. Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | |
20 City Composite Index | -0.5 | -1.0% | -1.0% | -1.6% | -13.3% | -15.7% | -3.8% |
Regional Indicators | |||||||
Atlanta | -1.7 | -2.0 | -2.3 | -7.9 | -11.6 | -8.5 | 0.7 |
Boston | -0.2 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -4.9 | -5.7 | -4.0 |
Chicago | -1.6 | -2.0 | -1.8 | -7.6 | -14.2 | -10.0 | -1.0 |
Charlotte | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -4.2 | -8.2 | -1.9 | 5.7 |
Dallas | -0.3 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -4.3 | -2.3 | -3.3 | 0.5 |
Denver | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.6 | -2.6 | -2.8 | -4.9 | -1.7 |
Los Angeles | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 2.1 | -15.4 | -24.2 | -5.2 |
Miami | -0.6 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -3.6 | -22.0 | -26.6 | -5.9 |
Minneapolis | -1.4 | -1.7 | -2.6 | -4.5 | -15.7 | -14.3 | -3.7 |
New York | -0.6 | -1.6 | -0.4 | -1.7 | -9.8 | -7.4 | -2.8 |
San Francisco | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -18.4 | -24.3 | -4.5 |
Tampa | -0.7 | -0.4 | -1.2 | -4.0 | -18.8 | -19.2 | -7.6 |