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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 24, 2010
NABE indicated in its latest Industry Survey that despite level demand throughout last year, most other economic conditions firmed. The index of unit demand improved sharply as 2010 began, but momentum waned as the year progressed. Nevertheless, as the percent of firms reporting higher demand rose moderately, the percent reporting lower demand fell sharply. The recovery in demand from the recession low necessitated more employment. The hiring index rose to its highest since 2006 as the percent of firms adding to payrolls surged. Capital spending plans improved in lockstep.
Gains on the product & employment side of firms' ledgers induced higher costs. By the end of the year, input costs had surged. Nearly half of firms faced higher and just a few reported falling costs. Despite higher costs, heightened competitive forces left firms with little ability to pass them along in the form of higher prices. The prices charged index was roughly stable, at a low level, with 2009. Encouraging, however, was that despite weak pricing power, firms' profit margins jumped to nearly the series' high. Government numbers showing improved worker productivity had a real effect on firms' bottom lines. Part of the reason costs remained under control was the modest recovery in wages & salaries.
In just the goods producing sector alone, unit demand weakened more than the overall figures indicated and profit margins plummeted into negative territory.
National Association For Business Economics Industry Survey | Q4'10 | Q3'10 | Q2'10 | Q1'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditions Over Last Three Months: Net Rising Index | |||||||
Unit Demand | 42.7 | 46.5 | 42.0 | 51.5 | 45.7 | 7.3 | -0.2 |
Employment | 27.7 | 17.8 | 17.3 | 8.8 | 17.9 | -22.2 | -3.4 |
Capital Spending | 32.1 | 25.4 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 19.5 | -6.5 | 7.3 |
Input Costs | 41.4 | 31.3 | 20.0 | 32.6 | 31.3 | 5.5 | 37.0 |
Prices Charged | 6.3 | -2.9 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 16.8 |
Profit Margins | 20.5 | 20.3 | 3.9 | 13.1 | 14.4 | -6.8 | -23.5 |
Wages & Salaries | 12.5 | 11.4 | 14.1 | 19.7 | 14.4 | -1.5 | 14.0 |
Goods Producing Industries | |||||||
Unit Demand | 40.9 | 27.8 | 69.2 | 60.0 | 49.5 | -15.0 | -33.0 |
Profit Margins | -4.8 | 23.5 | 25.0 | 30.8 | 18.6 | -18.9 | -31.1 |