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- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Carol Stone January 14, 2011
U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in December, following 0.3% in November,
which was revised from 0.4%. September and October were both revised
upward modestly. The December result compares to a consensus forecast of
0.5%. Year-on-year growth is up to 5.9%, and the year 2010 averaged 5.7%
above 2009, which in turn had plunged 9.3%. The rebound traces out the
strong "V" shape so clear in the first graph.
Also evident in the first graph is the erratic contribution of utility output. The oversized jump in total output in December indeed came from a weather-related 4.2% month-on-month surge in utilities. Apart from this sector, manufacturing production and mining production were each up 0.4%, and manufacturing in particular extended its trend which has been averaging 0.3%-0.4% per month.
Consumer goods output rose 1.1% in December. This too was pushed by consumers' use of energy goods and services. Otherwise, consumer durable goods actually fell 0.5% and nonenergy nondurable goods edged up 0.1%. Among durable goods, the auto sector continues to struggle, with December output down 0.4% following November's huge 5.7% drop. Household durables also declined, by 1.1%, largely reversing a promising two-month advance. Computers and other technology goods, however, gained 0.9%, a pick-up from 0.6% and 0.7% in October and November, respectively. In the business equipment sector, output was up 0.6%; the impact of such a good gain is muted, though, by a moderation in November from the strong 0.9% reported initially to 0.4% in this report. Construction supplies sagged anew, with an 0.8% drop in December that followed increases that averaged 1.0% in each of the two prior months. Growth prospects in that sector remain tenuous.
Capacity utilization overall improved to 76.0%, the highest level since August 2008 and an increase of 0.6 percentage points over November. This, of course, is partly due to the jump in utilities. In manufacturing alone, utilization ran at 73.2%, up from 72.9% in November.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database; that database contains index data at more decimal precision and also includes extensive lists of relative importance figures for several breakdowns of production by industry and market group.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Year Ago | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | -9.3 | -3.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 5.9 | 6.1 | -11.1 | -4.5 |
Consumer Goods | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | -5.8 | -4.2 |
Business Equipment | 0.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 11.8 | 7.9 | -12.2 | -1.5 |
Construction Supplies | -0.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | -16.7 | -9.5 |
Materials | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | -9.7 | -2.7 |
Utilities | 4.2 | 1.5 | -4.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | -2.6 | -0.1 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 76.0 | 75.4 | 75.2 | 71.6 | 74.3 | 70.0 | 77.9 |
Manufacturing | 73.2 | 72.9 | 72.8 | 69.1 | 71.7 | 67.2 | 75.0 |