Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Japan: Machinery Orders (Mar), Housing Credit, Loans for Equipment Funds (Q1), International Trade (Apr-Pelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca January 11, 2011
Japan's LEI has been gaining some traction. It shows a more complete recovery in gear than does the OECD LEI which has not
rebounded as much in the last year or so as the Japanese national gauge. Japan's own LEI gauge shows a recent sharp surge higher.
Its 3-month growth rate has accelerated beyond its pace for six-months but still expands at a pace below its 12-month rate of growth
The components of the OECD LEI show that the movement in the loan to deposit ratio is still a negative in Japan as is the barometer for overtime hours in MFG. But the construction sector, the trade sector, the interest rate spread (yield curve), and stock index are all moving higher. Inventories are a positive in the outlook. In short while. Japan still has a lot of challenges including a huge debt load and political uncertainty number of indicators are turning positive.
Japan has even done its part to try and calm the European debt situation by promising to buy European securities. This pledge along with China's earlier steps have helped to restore some balance in a European trading day that was starting to get a bit ugly. It's a key week for the European markets with key bond offerings on tap and Japan has some done something to try and make it a successful one. On top of that it has posted some improved economic readings.
Japan's LEI and its trends | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Levels | Growth (SAAR) | ||||||
Nov-10 | Oct-10 | Sep-10 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | 24MO | |
LEI | 101.0 | 97.7 | 99.1 | 4.9% | 2.8% | 11.2% | 24.7% |
LEI: OECD | 93.6 | 93.4 | 93.4 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
OECD LEI details | |||||||
Share Prices | 99.8 | 99.7 | 99.6 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.8% |
Int Spread (chngs) | 100.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Loan/Deposit | 99.2 | 99.3 | 99.4 | -1.0% | -0.8% | -1.2% | -1.6% |
Dwellings Started | 100.8 | 100.6 | 100.3 | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
OT-MFG | 100.8 | 100.9 | 101.0 | -0.6% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
Stocks/Deliv (M&M) | 98.9 | 98.9 | 98.9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.8% | -2.6% |
Exp>Imp | 100.4 | 100.2 | 100.0 | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.1% | -0.8% |
Grey shaded rows are one month behind current |